The Defense Department’s latest annual China Military Power Report has garnered attention for its insights into China’s escalating military capabilities and ambitions. While the report accurately highlights several key developments, it also has notable shortcomings in fully assessing the threat China poses.
This article is a summary. Please read the original article by Robert Peters & Wilson Beaver on the RealClear Defense think tank website, here
Highlights of the Report The report effectively outlines China’s extensive military buildup and modernization efforts. Key highlights include:
- Expansion of the Chinese navy, already the world’s largest fleet, with advancements like a third aircraft carrier and amphibious assault ship.
- Modernization of the Chinese air force, which now includes advanced manned and unmanned aircraft, positioning it as the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific.
- A significant increase in nuclear capabilities, with China building 100 new nuclear weapons in the past year, setting it on a path to potentially match the U.S. nuclear arsenal by 2032.
- Increased military assertiveness, as evidenced by over 280 coercive air intercepts against the U.S. and its allies.
- Utilization of naval assets to intimidate international fishing fleets and conducting numerous military exercises near Taiwan.
Shortcomings in the Report Despite these insights, the report has been criticized for its limited scope in certain areas:
- Reliance on China’s official defense budget of $230 billion, which is likely far lower than the actual figure. European think tanks estimate China’s real defense spending to be 30-40% higher.
- Failure to include details on research and development spending, a significant part of the U.S. defense budget.
- Lack of consideration for China’s military-civil fusion development strategy, which enhances its defense capabilities using civilian technology and industrial base.
- Not accounting for the purchasing power differences between China and the U.S., where defense spending is more cost-effective in China due to lower labor and material costs.
The Need for Accurate Assessment Senator Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, revealed an internal U.S. government estimate placing China’s defense budget at around $700 billion, far higher than the reported $230 billion. This discrepancy highlights the need for a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of China’s defense budget and capabilities, akin to the U.S. approach during the Cold War.
Conclusion: Underestimating China’s Threat The report, despite its detailed analysis of China’s military developments, falls short in fully capturing the scale and implications of China’s growing defense capabilities. To effectively counter this threat, a more accurate and holistic understanding of China’s military spending and strategic objectives is essential. The U.S. must leverage its intelligence resources to better grasp the extent of China’s military power and align its defense strategies accordingly.