Grant Shapps, the UK’s seventh defense secretary since 2010, recently delivered a potent speech at Lancaster House, echoing former U.S. President George W. Bush’s ‘axis of evil’ rhetoric. He identified Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, along with their proxies like the Houthis in Yemen, as major threats to Britain and the West.
This article is a summary. Please read the original article by Alex Ambrose on the Chatham House think tank website, here
Shifting from a Post-War to a Pre-War World
Shapps’s stark declaration signifies a shift from a post-war to a pre-war world, a sentiment also expressed by NATO officials like Admiral Rob Bauer. They warn of the possibility of an all-out war with Russia in the next two decades, urging countries to prepare through weapon production capacity, mobilization, and possibly conscription.
Evolution of the UK’s Defense Strategy
The UK’s defense strategy has evolved significantly over the past decade. The 2010 strategy, which focused on austerity and reduced defense capabilities, shifted in 2015 to recognize international terrorism and Russia as immediate threats. By 2021, under Boris Johnson, China was added to this list, leading to strategic alliances like the AUKUS treaty with the U.S. and Australia.
The Global Geopolitical Landscape
Shapps’s remarks mirror academic discussions, like Graham Allison’s ‘Destined for War’, about the inevitability of conflict when global power dynamics shift. The current rhetoric from China and the U.S. suggests a growing tension, while scholars like John Ikenberry describe a division between a democratic Global West and an autocratic Global East.
The UK’s Preparedness for Potential Conflicts
Shapps highlighted the UK’s commitment to its nuclear deterrent and a £31 billion modernization program. However, questions arise about the UK’s preparedness for potential conflicts, given the limitations in military capabilities, such as the aging fleet of Type 23 frigates and under-armed Type 45 destroyers.
Shapps’s speech points to a potential new era of global conflict, posing significant challenges for UK defense policy. The government faces the difficult task of balancing increased defense spending with other public expenditure demands. As the UK confronts this ‘axis of evil’ narrative, it might need to consider alternative approaches to its foreign policy, which has remained largely consistent for the past 75 years.