While the roar of artillery and the clash of steel in a potential conflict over Taiwan paint a terrifying picture, Dr. James Holmes raises his gaze to the wider canvas of political and strategic consequences. The author explores various aspects of a potential conflict over Taiwan, focusing on military strategies, capabilities, and outcomes.
From The National Interest. For a detailed read, you can access the full article here.
Executive Summary: Holmes’ analysis utilizes the rich tapestry of a wargame simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to unravel the intricate threads of various scenarios and outcomes following a Chinese invasion. From the critical role of Taiwan’s own defense stance to the delicate dance of U.S. military strategies, the analysis dissects the potential impact of weapon systems like the JASSM-ER missile. It emphasizes the complexity and potential costs of such a conflict, while also considering the political and strategic implications, as follows:
- Taiwan needs to become self-reliant in its defense and should not solely rely on outside intervention.
- US needs Japan’s permission to operate from its bases for successful intervention.
- US military needs a significantly larger stock of anti-ship missiles to counter a PLA Navy invasion fleet.
- War with China will be costly and bloody, likely involving multiple battles rather than a single decisive engagement.
Key takeaways:
- The CSIS wargame found that China’s PLA generally lost or stalemated against Taiwan and its allies in most scenarios.
- This success hinges on Taiwan taking active responsibility for its defense and the US bolstering its anti-ship missile arsenal.
- The authors warn against underestimating the potential duration and intensity of such a conflict, emphasizing that it could be a protracted struggle.
- They also highlight the importance of considering China’s potential willingness to try again after an initial defeat.
Specific points:
- The JASSM-ER missile emerges as a crucial weapon, potentially doubling as an anti-ship platform with software upgrades.
- The report expresses some ambiguity about the extent of JASSM-ER’s anti-ship capability by 2026, but its potential as a “force multiplier” is emphasized.
- The wargame scenarios without JASSM-ER’s anti-ship functionality resulted in heavy allied aircraft losses due to closer engagement with PLA Navy defenses.
- The title “The First Battle” reflects the possibility of this conflict being the opening act in a longer struggle for Taiwan, drawing on Clausewitz’s observation that war outcomes are not always final.
Overall, the report recommends:
- Increased US and allied preparedness for a potentially protracted and costly conflict with China.
- Taiwan’s active engagement in its own defense.
- Substantial expansion of the US anti-ship missile stockpile.
- Strategic planning that takes into account the possibility of China seeking future opportunities to re-engage.